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THE MEASUREMENT OF NATIONAL ATTITUDE DURING A WAR CRISIS

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T 203 2 3
THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO
THE ?‘.EASTJREIvTENT OF NATIONAL ATTITUDE
DURING A '.VAR CRISIS
A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO
Tim FACULTY OF TITF DIVISION OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCES
IN CANDIDACY FOR THE DECKEL OF
MASTER OF ARTS
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
BY
MARGARET OTIS
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS
DECEMBER, 1940
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF T A B L E S ............................................
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
. . . ..............................
Chapter
I.
II.
INTRODUCTION
..................... ..
M E T H O D ............................................
The Definition of War Crisis
The Measurement of National Attitudes
Special Aspects of this Study
The measurement of attitudes
The duration of the Boer War crisis
The newspaper vised
The selection of attitude statements
The Judging of attitude statements
III.
ATTITUDE CHANGES DURING THE BOER WAR CRISIS
. . .
Explanation of Attitude and Attention Curves
Attitude and Attention Curves Considered In
tlielr Relation to Each Other
Attitude as a whole In relation to the
amount of attention given as a whole
The homogeneity of attitude
Editorial and non-editor5al attitude in
relation to cue another
May 1-July 15
July 15—Se p tember 1
September 1—October 11
The sample curve in relation to quantitative
curves of attitude as a whole and of editorial
attitude
Attitude and Attention Curves Considered In
Relati n to the Progress of Negotiations be­
tween the British Government and the Transvaal
Republic
April 15-July 15
July 15—August 15
August 15-0otober 11
The Comparison of Attitude Curves with Thozje
of Other War Crisee
Attitudes at the beginnings of the crises
Attitudes at the ends of the crises
APPENDIX
APPENDIX B .
BIBLIOGRAPHY
• • • •
..............................................
LIST OF TABLES
Table
1,
The Pi s tr lbutIon of Attitude Statements • • • • • • •
27
2,
Tho Distribution of Editorial Attitude Statements
20
5*
Tho Distribution of *on-Ieditorlal Attitude State­
ments
20
4*
The Distribution of Sample Att1tudo Statements
f>»
Tho Porcontaoos of Attitude at the Extremes of
...........................
the Scale
SI
The Percentages of Editorial Attitude at the
Extreme a of tho Scale • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
51
The Forcen ta^oo of Eon-EGitorlal Attitude at the
Extremes of tho Scalo • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
52
'1110 Ratio of Eon-Edltorlal to Editorial Attitude
on tho Basis Editorial Attitude * 1«G0 • • • • • • •
52
G#
7*
G.
111
•
• •
• •
SO
LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS
Graph
F r ^o
1.
The Variation In Amount of Attention Given •
21
2.
The Intonsity, Direction, Uono. onolty and Continuity
of Attitude
.
22
The Variation in Aaount of Editorial and UonIkiltorlal Attention Given, and the Direction and In—
tensity of "editorial and fon—Editorial Attitude
.• •
23
Tho PSroction and Intensity of Editorial and Non—
Editorial Attitude • • .............. . . . . . . . . .
24
0,
Am
5.
G.
The Variation In Amount of Attention Given and tho
Ratio of Ron-Editorial to ’
Editorial Attention Clvon
The r-lroctior, and Intensity of Attitude ''ensured
^unntltativoly 1'. all Attitude Statement b . In Edi­
torial Attitude Statements, and In Sample Attitude
Statements
lv
• 25
26
CHAPTER I
IHTROCUCTIOH
In tills Uioain an attompt Is made to study the charges
of attitudo of a atnto chtrlnr a war crisis*
The state chosen
hero is Great Britain, and th© period of study, the six months
preceding the Boor 'War*
Curves of difforont aspects of British
attitude havo boon drawn according to tho Thurstone method of
attitude measurement*
Those ore oxanlnod In tlionsolvoo. In th©
li&Jit of outsldo ovonts and In their relation to the attitude
curves of other states during war crl3oe which have already been
drawn, with an attempt to draw oil possible Inforoneos as to th©
changes of attitude In a war crisis*
1
CliA, TER II
m-Ti’noD
Tho Def inition of War Crlala
The term war crisis la used to designate a certain time
period In the relations between two states, the expiration of
which Is only ambiguous In such cases rficro hostilities break
out without a declaration of war, but the beginning of which io
ambiguously referred to*
In this study war crisis is defined aa that period during
which tho politically Influential group in one ntato direct a
certain minimum degree of attention toward the futuro enemy state
and dovolop, with reference to that state, an attitude of steadily
Increasing hostility, at the end of which time war actually
breaks out*
Tho Measurement. of Rational Attitudes
The fhuratono method is used here l or measuring tho nttItudo of tho politically Influential group In Great Britain
during the 3oer Y*ar crisis, as Illustrated by Mr* Russell and Mr*
•■.right,^ with further variations as the particular characteris­
tics of this crisis have suggested*
Tills method is based on the
sampling of editorial attitudo statements In reproaontatl vo nov/spapers with reference to soao outside state, and the sorting of
those statements Into eleven categories according to intensity
of attitudo for or against tho state In question*
In choosing
^J* T* Russell and h* Y.rlrht, ”’atlonul Attltudos on the
Far Eastern Controversy.” American Political Science Review.
XXVII (August, 1933), 555-57S^
“ — -f>
3
tho sarr.pl o statements "an effort was made In the case of a given
editorial to take tho attitude statement which epitomised tho
general attitude of the editorial*"
It la assumed by Mr*
Russell and Mr. bright that tho editorials present a fair sample
of the politically influential sections of the population which
reads tho paper*
Special Aspects of this Study
Measurement of Attitudo
In tbits study attitude lias been measured comparing tho
sample
method to a quantitative method In order to test tho ac­
curacy
of tho samples as representative of tho newspaper nr. a
whole*
The quantitative method has also tfiiown variations In tho
amount of attention given to tho Transvaal tliroughaut the crisis*
Secondly, In view of the use of a quantitative as well
as a sampling method of attitude measurement, the numbor of at­
titude statements has boon considered sufficient for a bl-montkly
as well as monthly averaging of attitudes, thus permitting a
closer correlation between attitude curves and oxitsidc events*
Finally, editorial and non—editorial attitudes havo been
measured soparatoly as well as collectively, thus making possible
a comparative study of tho two, and separate studios of each with
relation to outside events*
The Duration of tho Boer War Crisis
The crisis chosen for this study Is consldorod as begin­
ning in May, 1G99 when th© amount of attention directed toward
the Transvaal (fifty-one attitude statements during the course
of tho
month an compared
ruary,
March, and April) Is first above the mlnl.mun hero
XIbld*
with twenty-seven during January, Feb­
considered necessary to constitute a war crisis*
It ends on
October 11, 1399, when the Boer ultimatum to Great Britain ex­
pired*
Tho Newspaper Used
The newspaper chosen for the measurement of attitude Is
tho London Times as best representing the politically influential
sector of the British population*
The Selection of Attitude Statements
Attitude statements are chosen from editorials, letters,
speeches, poems, book reviews, and special articles— that Is, all
attitude statements are Included vrlth the exception of those ap­
pearing In straight news wrlte-rips, where they are quite infre­
quent, end those found in quotations from foreign newr.papers,
which are not necessarily similar to simultaneous British atti­
tudes*
Statements considered as referring to the Transvaal nro
those which refer to the state, tho government, acts of govern­
ment, government instit\itlons, high government officials, and the
people of the state*
The term attitude statement, as defined by Mr* Wright and
Mr* liaison, "implies the use of 'emotional' words and of state­
ments or 'rationalisations' which are not In accordance with or
which go beyond facts*"^
It was found necessary. In order, somehow, to limit the
number of statements included, to consider here as attitude state­
ments only those in which the attitude was explicit*
Thus, while
"the extravagant pretensions of the Boors" (September 14) is
considered an attitude statement, Paul Kruger's Idea was really
Q,* Wright and C* Nelson, "American Attitudes toward
Japan and China, 1937-53," Public Opinion Quarterly. Ill
(January, 1939), 46-62*
to have an independent Republic extending from ZanbOBl to Capo—
totm1’ (September 2G) is not*
Tho Judging or Attitudo Statements
In sorting theeo statements, a division was first made
between those favorable and those unfavorable*
These were sub­
divided Into five groups according to intensity of attitudes* A
final croup contains, in the studios of I-’r* bright, statements
which are Judged to be neutral*
In this study it actually con­
tains either statements vory faintly tinged with attitude pro or
con the Transvaal, or unclosalflablo statemonts from which either
a favorable or unfavorable attitude may bo Inferred*
CHAPTER III
ATTITUDE CHANGES DURING 1WE BOER WAR CRISIS
Explanation of A ttitude and Attention (Amount of
~
Attitude Statements) dirrvoa
Attitude and attention are studied here In the following
ways :
Appendix Graph 1 oho»3 the variation In amount of atten­
tion piven, as measured through the number of attitude statements,
and the direction and Intensity of attitude; Graph 2, the Inten­
sity, direction, homogeneity and continuity of attitude*
Graph
3, the variation In amount of editorial and non—editorial atten­
tion given, and the direction and Intensity of editorial and nonedltorlal attitude; Graph 4, the direction and Intensity of edlv
torlal and non—editorial attitude; Graph 5, the variation In
amount of attention given and tho ratio of non-editorial to edi­
torial attention given; Graph 6, tho direction and Intensity of
attitude measured quantitatively in all attitude statements. In
editorial attitude stataments, and in sample attitude statements*
In choosing sample statements I selected from each editorial two
attitude statements which I judged representative of the attitude
of the editorial as a whole*
Attitude and Attention Curves Considered In
Their Relation to f.acK 6€Ker
It is of some interest to observe the particular charac­
teristics of these curves and the relation of one to another,
before considering them In the light of outside events*
1* To consider first, in Graph 1, attitude as a whole In
6
7
relation to amount of attention given as a whole, within the
range of a certain minimum degree of attention, which range ex*
eludes May end June— and making an exception of tho second part
of September, the two curves move In the same direction*
The
greater the attention given, the more favorable the attitude*
Oraph 4 ehowr. that non-editorial attitude la on the whole more
friendly to the Transvaal than editorial attitude; and Graph 5,
that there la a covariation of the amount of attention given
as a
whole and the amount of non—editorial, as compared to editorial
attention given*
However, not only does the
proportion of non-
editorial attitude Increase as the amount of attention given In­
creases , btxt, as may be seen In Graph 3, from the first half of
July on, except for the second half of August and that of Septem­
ber, editorial attitude and attention curves move In the same
direction; the greater the amount of editorial attention given
the more favorable editorial attitude*
Thus the fact that favorabillty of attitude as a whole
increases as attention given as a whole increases has two reasons:
(1) comparatively friendly non-editorial attitude Increases in
amount as attention as a whole increases; (2) non-odltorial atti­
tude becomes more friendly as it Increases In amount*
Thor© oro two possi ble explanations of this second obser­
vation*
Non—editorial writing represents groups both friendly
and hostile t o t h e Transvaal*
Thus there is a possibility that
th© increased friendliness of non—editorial attitude is due:
(1) to the greater amount of attention g ivon by friendly groups
as compared with hostile groups;
(2) to tho increased friendliness
of the editorial attitude as a whole*
Obviously these possibilities are not mutually exclusive;
however, one may have greater weight than the other*
To
8
aaoertaln their relative Importance It would be necessary to di­
vide non—editorial attitude statements according to the known
political affiliation of the writer (for or against tho govern­
ment policy) and thon observe whether there is: (1) a covariation
of the curve of attention given by writers against the government
policy and the curve of non-editorial attitude; and/or (2) a co­
variation of ti e attitude curves of writers for the government
policy and non—editorial attitude.
If both covariations wore ob­
served it would be necessary to comi»ute statistically the rela­
tive Impact of each in the curve of non-editorial attitude.
2.
How, after considering the relation of attitudo and a
tention distribution, the homogeneity of attitude will be dis­
cussed.
In Graph 2 if polarization of attitude is considered to
exist where group 1 contains over 2 per cent of the total atti­
tude statesnts for two weeks; group 2, ovor 10 por cent; group
10, over 1 per cent and group 11, over 1 per cent,^ tliero Is a
polarisation of attitude only in t he s econd part of September and
in October, the period immediately preceding the outbreak of war*
It may be seen in the Appendix Tables 7 and 8, that the passage
of attitude from friendly to more friendly la almost entirely
due to changes in non-editorial attitude, whereas that from un­
friendly to more unfriendly la due mainly to changes In editorial
attitude.
However, while In editorials hostile attitude becomes
increasingly Intense as war approaches, in non-editorial writing
hostile attitude la more intense In the second part of September
than In October.
In order to validate the general proposition that as one
approaches tho outbreak of war there la a further likelihood of
^Theae percentages wore arbitrarily chosen as best showing;
the greater Intensities of attitude during the final weeks of the
crisis as corapured with earlier weeks.
polarisation of attitude similar attitude studies of other crises
would have to be made.1,
3* Having considered attitude as a whole, editorial and
non-editorial attitude will now be studied as separate entities
in their relation to one another.
Graph 7 shows that editorial
and non-editorial attitude stand in three different relations to
one another.
May 1-July 1 5 .— The curves move in the same direction but
move in opposite directions if allowance is made for a regular
two-weeks time lag in either editorial or non-editcrial attitude.
Insofar as the two curves move in the same direction but with a
time lag there are the two possibilities that non-editorial In­
fluences editorial attitude or vice versa.
is most unlikely
The first possibility
because o f the extremely low degree of non-edi-
torlal attention given dnring those months— it bo ing much more
Ilk ly that editorial
attitudo was formed by cablegrams sent dally
from South Africa and the deliberate policy of the editors of the
paper, which, as is well known, was sympathetic to Rhodes and
Chamberlain
There Is a second possibility, that the non-editorial
writers are being Influenced by editorial attitude in two ways:
by facts read in editorials and by editorial attitude itself.
This seems more likely, as it is probable that at the beginning
of the crisis readers of the paper had no source of information
other than the London Times.
It also seems likely that there
^It would be interesting, for instance, to make a study of
American attitudes during 1940 with reference to Rngland (choos­
ing here the potential ally rather than the potential enemy as
this would show a wider variation of attitude).
2 "Rhodes had won over Moberly Bell, the powerful manager
of the London Times, to his South African projects." Eugene
Staley. War and fcho Private Investor (Hew York, 1935), p. 207.
10
should be a certain time lag between tie reading of the editorials,
the formation of an attitude, both from facta read in the edi­
torials and the attitude in the editorials
themselves, and the
reformulation of such attitude in speeches, articles and letters
to the Times,
There is again a third possibility that there Is no sub­
stantial interaction between the two attitudes.
they
In this case
would be reacting oppositely to the a are outside events. The
fact that v e r y few Important outside events took place during this
time would perhaps diminish the likelihood.
To Investigate these
possibilities it would be necessary to compare the contents of
editorials and non-edltorlals as distinguished from attltldes to
compute statistically the proportion of non-edltorlal writing In
the Tines In which the chief points of emphasis were made in pre­
vious editorials} the proportion quoting editorials as source or
obviously deriving tholr information from editorials.
This would
show whether the attitude of non-editorial writers was Influenced
by information derived from earlier editorials.
There is also
tho possibility th at non—edit orial writers are influenced by the
attitude of earlier editorials.
1
Investigate.
This would be difficult to
July 15-3 aptember 1 .— The two curves move in toe same
direction, the non-editorla 1 curve being always the more extreme.
Kxperimenta, however, could be devised to test the like­
lihood of such a hypothes 1st the attitudes of t wo groups of people
with reference to a subject could be studied. 'Hie first of these
groups would have been exposed, two weeks before to some litera­
ture expressing a definite attitude towards that subject. If the
attitude of members of the first group should correspond more
closely to the attitude expressed In the literature than that of
members of the second group, the hypothesis wo. Id be borne out to
a certain extent. It would be necessary before studying the at­
titudes of the two groups to equate their previous attitudes and
also to make sis*e by means of tests that the members of tho first
group do not clearly remember the facts In the piece of litera­
ture to w h ’ch they wore exposed.
11
Th* point at which non-aditorlal attitude first moves In the same
direction with editorial attitude Is the time when a parliamentary
debate was held for the first time on the subject of the Transvaal
and when for the first time, non-editorial attention became large,
as may be seen In Qraph 3*
This leads to a presumption that dur­
ing this period non-edltarial attitude is less dependent on edi­
torial attitude*
To give proof to such a proposition It wrould be
necessary to use the same methods as those mentioned above, but
In the opposite ways
compute the proportion of non-editorial
writers quoting sources and obtaining information other than that
In editorials*
September 1-October 1 1 *— The curves again move in opposite
directions, and In the same direction if allowance 3s made for a
two week time lag in non-edltorlal
attitude*
However, there Is
somewftiat less of a preaxunptlon In this case that, as In the first
ease, non-edltorlal attitude is Influenced by facts and attitudes
of earlier editorials*
First, as may be seen in Qraph 3, non—
editorial attention is greater during this last phase than at any
other time*
This might suggest that that where such high interest
was shown, non-editorial wrrlters would perhaps attempt to find
sources of information other than the editorials.
Secondly, it is
certain that in this last period there were Important outside
events (the final exchanges of notes between Kruger and Chamberlain) which were discussed simultaneously In both editorials and
non-editorlals; and that these two sources of attitude were in
conscioiis disagreement*
A reading of the Loadon Times gives an im­
pression that this is not true in the first period (May 1-July 15).
However, a statistical compu tat ion should be made in both periods
of the number of hostile statements appearing in editorials with
reference to non-editorial writers opposing the editorial policy
12
(Korley, Cambell-Bannerman, etc*) cmd vice versa*
Statistical
computations should also be made showing the proportion of nonedltorlal writing deriving Information from sources other than tho
editorial columns, and those dealing with the same outside events
simultaneously with editorials*
If ouch proportions were much
greator In the last than In the first period, validity would bo
given to the proposition that during this last period as opposed
to the first poriod, editorial and non-edltorlal attitudes are
being formed simultaneously by outside events*
It may also be seen, In comparing the relation of tho two
curves in tho first poriod to that in the last period, that
whereas In th* first although moving In opposite directions they
remain fairly close together and intersect at throe points, in
this last poriod there is a wide divergence of the two*
This
would give Increased support to the two propositions alroady given
regarding tho first and third periods*
It would seem likely that
where non-edltorlal attitude was positively Influence by editorial
attitudo it would remain within the same general range of atti­
tude, while where editorial and non-edltorlal attitude are inde­
pendent, they might move in different ranges of attitude*
A reading of tho London Times during tills period gives
the impression that whereas at tho beginning of tho crisis nonedit or lal attitude Is equally distributed between all political
parties, at the end of tho crisis it Increasingly represents the
Opposition In parliament*
Some support would bo glvon to this If
the propositions suggested regarding the relation of editorial
and non-odltorial attitudes In tho first and last periods wore
established*
As tho editorial policy supported the government,
non-edltorlal attitude moving exactly opposltoly to editorial
tltudo might seem to represent tho Opposition*
To give such a
•opositlon any validity it would be necessary to commit-**
13
end or the crisis the proportion of letters, articles, and speeches
signed by avowed members of the Opposition as compared with that
proportion at the beginning of the crisis*
To consider each curve as a whole, both change direction
every two weeks, thus oscillating In a regular two-weeks rhythm*
Mr* Russell and Mr* Wright, observing such oscillations In their
studies, assert that this Is a universal pattern of attitude*
It
may be noted here that the editorial attitude curve is on the
iftiole smoother than that of non-edltorlal attitude, and that the
oscillations are smaller and much more regular.
This may be at­
tributed to the higher feeling of responsibility on the part of
the editorialists*
, the
4. To finally consider, in Oraph 6
sample curve of
attitude In it3 relation to the quontitatlve curves of attitude,
the divergence between editorial attitude and attitude as a whole
precludes any possibility of similarity between the sample curve
and the curve of attitude as a whole.
There is only a alight
difference between the sample curve and the curve of editorial
attitude*
Attitude and Attention Curves Considered In Relation
to the Progress of negotiations between tfis
British Government and the Transvaal Republic
It Is Impossible to determine in this study which events
were most Important as causes for changes of attitude In the
London Times*
Obviously there were many factors apart from the
actual negotiations between the two governments which were no
doubt of Importance; however, it is probable that tho progress of
the negotiations Influenced attitude enough to make profitable a
study of attitude and attention In relation to the progress of
negotiations•
It Is convenient to study the Boer War crisis In terms of
14
three distinct periods•
April 15-July 15
During this period the question of the grievances of the
Nltlanders emerged; as may be seen in the increasing amount of
attention given* and the increasing hostility of attitude.
Milner
expressed the issue* in the unsuccessful Bloemfontein conference*
in terms of demands for franchise reforms within the Transvaal.
July 15-August 15
Fruitless negotiations were held between the British and
TTansvaal governments.
The relative inactivity* during this
period* is reflected in the static character of the attention
curve* except for the sudden upward spurt in the latter part of
July which may be attributed to the parlianentary debate held on
the subject of the Transvaal at that time.
The attitude curve is
also relatively static except for an upward spurt in the second
part of July which may be attributed to the fact that during ,the
parliamentary debate the attitude of political lea era more favor­
able to the TTansvaal than those responsible fcx* the editorial
policy of the London Times is recorded.
August 15-0ctober 11
The issue shifted from a demand for franchise reforms,
which were substantially conceded* to the status of the TTansvaal.
The Transvaal*s claim of sovereignty was denied by Great Britain*
which insisted on its own suzerainty over the Transvaal* and re­
garded the Transvaal claim as in the nature of a defiance.
Whereas the franchise question seemed susceptible of peaceful
solution* the question of the status of the TTansvaal was one
which neither government was willing to concede.
Thus the atten­
tion curve rises steadily as the possibility of a compromise
15
beearae Increasingly re otfl, mill tary proparat Iona wore rushed on
both aldai, and war In the near future changed from a possibility
to a probability.
It la Interesting to note that during tho
poriod directl?/ preceding the outbreak of war there waa a lessen­
ing of attention.
This suggests that as ear was already accepted
as Inevitable the gradual drifting Into war waa of leas nows
value than would have been efforts to avert war.
A proposition
might bo advanced that there 3s an optimum degree of probability
of an event for tlieamount of attention given to that event. Such
a proposition would have to be borne out through similar studies
of attitudo with re f o r m cfl to specific l3suee.
A study of the curve of all attitude statements In relation
to outside events is not useful durin,
crisis.
tS'is lost period of the
As waa seen in the analysis of Qraph 4, editorial and
non-editorial attitudes reacted to events in exactly opposite ways.
The apparently paradoxical fact of a national attitude In Great
Britain which at tho moment of declaration of war is fHvornble as
compared with the national attitude during the first parts of
July and August, Is capable of explanation when editorial and nonedltorlal attitudes oro separately examined.
The paradox la due
to the mutually neutralising effects of opposite and extreme at­
titudes when these are counted In the same curve.
Although Hi ere wa3 an important c h K v e of attention during
the second half of August, there Is no change in editorial and
non-edltorlal curves tint 11 the first half of September.
The second
half of August was a period of Increasing military preparations In
both Great iri tain and the Transvaal, and a growing sense of the
failure of negotiations.
It was not, however, until early in
September, that Kruger sent a dispatch to the British Government,
practical I, conceding all franchise refarai3 demanded by Milner at
1G
the Bloemfontein conference, but at the same time he raised the
question of tho status of tho Transvaal.
Little Englanders and
Liberals v;olcomod tho new Kruger proposals as loading to a peace­
ful solution of tho dispute, whereas Chamberlain and tho govern­
ment party rightly or wrongly Interpreted tho Transvaal claim to
complete Independence as an Insolent doflnace of tho British posi­
tion In South Africa which, in tho interest of British prestige,
should not bo tolerated#
It is known as a fact that tho editors
of the Times conslstenly supported Chamberlain and Rhodes.
The
proposition that towards tho end of the crisis non-editorials In­
creasingly represented the Opposition, although not given conclu­
sive proof, has sec-med likely#
If this proposition is true it
would seem that non-editorial attitude welcome the Kruger propo­
sals whereas editorial attitude, following the Chamberlain lead
and perhaps fearing that a peaceful solution was not possible
without menacing British Interests in South Africa, shifted its
ground and picked on the Issue of the Transvaal’s claim to inde­
pendence as a challenge to the British empire.
After a relaxation of tho intensity of each attitude d u r ing the second part of September, diiring October, just before the
outbreak of vmr, non-editorial attitude moves upward again, and
editorial attitude, downward#
If tho supposition earlier made
that ns one approaches the outbreak of war non-editorial writers
increasingly represent the Opposition party is true, this final
'upward swing, of non-edltorlal attitude would seoiu due to a last
minute effort on the part of cortnin members of the Opposition to
avert war#
In reading of the London Times of October, l'-0 , the
many letters and speeches of such men ns i'orlcy nnf C atipbell-^annerman give this impression.
It is natural that editorial attitude,
since trie editorial policy of tho London Times supported the
17
government, should reach its lowest point with the declaration of
war.
If It could be definitely established that the Opposition
is represented to a greater degree at the end of the crisis than
at the beginning, It would be Interesting to make similar studies
of other war crises In countries where opinion is divided.
It
would first be seen, as has been already said, whether there is a
polarisation of attitude at the end of the crisis j and second,
whether favorable and unfavorable attitudes are then evenly dis­
tributed, or whether they represent to a greater extent then at
other times during the crisis opposing political parties.
If such
were true it could be assumed that polarization of attitude at
the end of a crisis was due to a more definite cleavage of policy
between the two political parties at tho end of the crisis than
at the beginning.
The Comparison of Attitude Curves with
Thoa* of Other Waif* Arises
Having considered attitude and attention In relation to
the progress of negotiations, it was considered of possible In­
terest to compare the attitude curve in Graph 2 to those already
drawn of states during other war crises.
In their article on the
attitude of states, Mr. Russell and Mr. Wright made a study of
American attitude wl th reference to Germany during a period in­
cluding the World War crisis.
These curves were drawn from sample
statements selected from editorials of representative newspapers
and are assumed by Mr. Russell and Mr. Wrif£it to represent the
attitude of the public reading the paper.
The curve of attitude
as a whole in the London Times w ill be compared to these curves,
and not the sample curve, as this does not In t he least represent
the attitude of the public reading the paper.
These curves of
13
American attitude differ strikingly from the curves of British
attitude during the Boer War crisis*
1*
The average attitude of the United States towards
Germany falls during the war crisis, from a relatively high
pointy
An Important state, such as Germany, was of news value In
a foreign state whether the attitude Of that state happened to he
hostile to it or not, whereas the ITanavanl, a relatively unim­
portant state, had little or no news value except insofar as it
aroused British Indignation*
2. American attitudes toward Germany reached a lower level
than did British attitude toward the Transvaal*
When war was
declared in 1917 the average waa 2.5 as compared with 4*29 in
1099, and this waa lower than at any other point during the crisis*
This observation is equally true of the curvo of attitude of
Japan with reference to Chino also drawn by hr. Russell and Mr.
Wright from 1930-).932, which, reached its lowest point, 2.75, dur­
ing the month of the Mukden Incident* ^
It has already been observed that, in this study, the at­
titude curve in Graph 2 is relatively high dbrJ.ng tho month when
war broke out, although the curve of editorial attitude tlien
readies Its lowest point, 3.22.
Graph 3 Shows that the degree of
attention given in non-editorials la much greater than that given
in editorials towards the end of the crisis, and that the attitude
shown la opposite to that of the editorials.
Thus tho London
Times does not show to any considerable extent the attitude of
that sector of the British public which supported the government
policy, although the editorialists supported that policy.
There
*The attitude statements shown In Appendix B of this paper,
p. 34, and in that of "Attitudes on the Far Eastern Con trove' _,yH
may be referred to, to see how far such on absolute comparison of
attitude In both, studies is justifiable*
19
are two possible explanations *
(1) Readers of the London Tinea
agreeing with its editorial policy and with the government wrote
fewer letters and raade fewer speoehes than did members of the
Opposition*
There is no way of proving tnlat although there is a
common sense presumption to the effect*
(2) ChamberIain's chief
adherents were not the readers of the London Times but readers of
popular
newspapers such as the Ltd ly hews*
In order to find
out if this were true it would bo necessary to make similar atti­
tudo curves of non-edltorlal attitude in tho bally News and see
how far tills corroaponds to edit or ltvl attitude in tho London Times*
APPENDIX A
21
271
rlen&l;
520
310
210.
20CC
lO
19(l
IOC l
17C
1G1
X
14C:
Ui
13C
120
:outx*al
G
Ho
IOC
ocE
7C
SO
4C
20
Ioatllo
Attitude
At ton*
tion
'■ay
June
J
Oct
Graph I,— The variation in amount of attention given
Dissertation Graph Paper for Sale by the University of Chicago BookMore—5802 Ellis Avenoe, Chicago* Illin o is
22
11
lO
Neutral
Hostile
Attitude Atg g
tlon
ay
June
July
Oct
Oraph 2.— The intensity, dlroctlon, homogeneity and contlmilty of attitude.
23
289
241
Friendly
11 210
200
10
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
6
110
lOO
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
Hostile
10
ttitude Atten
tlon
Hay
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Graph 3 .--The variation In acioxmt of editorial and nonoditorlal attention given, and the direction and intern ity of*
editorial and non-edltorlal attitude#
24
Friendly
11
Lt£
10
Dissertation Graph Paper for Sale by the University of Chicago Bookstore—5802 Ellis Avenue* Chicago* Illin o is
9
8
7
Neutral
6
5
4
3
2
Hostile
1
Attitude
At ten'
tion
June
July
Au g .
Sept.
Oct.
Graph 4• — 'i'iie direction and Intonsit;,- of editorial and
non-editorial attitude.
25
S.5
350
340
330
320
310
300
290
230
270
2G0
250
240
230
220
210
200
1.0
190
100
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
70
GO
40
30
pn
Ratio of
Attitude
10
0
Atten- 1
tlon
May
June
July
Aug.
Sept.
Oct.
Graph 5 .--The variation In amount of attention given and
the ratio of non-editorial to editorial attention given.
26
Friendl
a
ui
10
9
0
7
|Neutral
§
6
5
4
3
2
Hoatllj
ay
Juno
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Graph 6*--The direction and intensity of attitude measured
quantitatively in all attitude statements, in editorial attitude
statements, and in sample attitude statements*
27
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THE DISTRIBUTION OF EDITORIAL ATTITUDE STATEMENTS
•
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14
30
D.
I
THE DISTRIBUTION OP NON-EDITORIAL ATTITUDE STATEMENTS
a
5S
m
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03 tO
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to to
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a
Total No*
oar month
«<
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m o
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3,70
r+
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fS C
to
TITE DISTRIBUTION 0? SAULE ATTITUDE STATEMENTS
rH
rH
o
rH
a»
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rH
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w
►a
July
g
43
orr
a
4
■i
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Pr
•
W
October
■Q
31
TABLE 5
THE PERCENTAGES OP ATTITUDE AT TFTE EXTREMES
OP TITH SCALE
IT
July
1.32
August
5.74
12.72
•48
2 ,6 6
.95
2.37
10.93
October
1.29
TABLE 6
TITE PERCENTAGES OF EDITORIAL ATTITUDE AT TIT
EXTREMES OP TJTE SCALE
Group
Date
... r ---•••••
..
"TT
1.66
15.63
5.00
1
2
1.85
.85
5.55
5.90
September 1
2
.82
1.01
7.44
7.07
October
4.50
19.10
July
August
1
2
1
--- m • •••#
II
• • •••
• ••••
1.01
32
TABLE 7
TITE PERCENTAGES OF RON-EDITORIAL ATTITUDE AT THE
EXTREMES OF THE SCALE
Group
Date
1
2
10
11
July
1
2
• •# •
1.00
24.32
6.63
• • ••
1.42
••••
••• •
August
1
2
• •• •
3.04
10.05
9.21
• •• •
••••
•• • •
•• • •
September 1
2
• •••
3.35
3.40
15.45
7.95
2.09
2.27
1.G7
October
3.32
1
1.66
TABLE 8
THE RATIO OF NON-EDITORIAL TO EDITORIAL ATTITUDE
OH THE BASIS EDITORIAL ATTITUDE * 1.00
Dmto
Ratio
Fay
1 ...........10
2 .......... 42
Ju t m
1 . . •.
*32
2 . . . . 1.50
July
1 • • • • 1.16
2 • • . . 3.47
Au^us t
1 . . «.
*20
2 .......... 65
September
1 • • ••
.73
2 . . . • 2.40
Ootober
1•
• • • 2.74
APPENDIX B
Sample Attitude Statomonto
1*
"• . • who ^JrlticH subjects/^ w®**e tyrannized over
and appro g nod by the moot wlcirod Oovernnont tl;nt UacI over oxlstod under the nun*"
(Teetlny, foptombor 21)
2* ", « . that supremacy ^Tr.ltlah|7 • • • Is seriously
and insolently cimlleny.od,* (Letter, Octobor 3)
Z * "* * * a contlnuanc of misrule and Incompetence In
the Government of a small state In which we have larc© Interests*"
(Letter, ’*ay 2 3 )
4* "• • * that tills prohibition • • • Is in conflict
with tho spirit, If not tbo letter, of the Convention is hardly
to be contested*"
(IC&ltorlal, August 24)
5* "* * * such bolnu tho otubbornoso of the Boors."
(House of Commons, July 29)
6* "• * * whatever tho disapproval of much that has boon
ono by the Transvaal Government, it Is felt there is nothlny in
the existing circumstances to Justify a resort to arms*’1
~
(Letter, August 25)
7* "They have yon©, if not quite the whole, almost tho
whole of tho way towards a provision for tho rodroos of grievan­
ces which tho British Government Imvu demanded*” (Letter, Octo­
ber 4)
D. "Thoy had manhood suffrage In the South
African Kopublic,
nru' the only way In which they could extend It wan to
grant womanhood suffrage*"
(Mooting, October C)
9* "Although many gibes and sneers had boon thrown at
tho President of tho -Republic, * * * at least he would daro to
say t is for him— that he was about tho only man who scorned to
have the foe ling or consciousness that God had anything todo
with it all*" T 'eetlr.y, October 4)
10* "Tho naturalization law would thus bo far more eneroup t' an tho laws prevailing in 1'uropo or In our own colufii.es**1
(heo tin _, be tobor 6)
11* "he ’m e w thorn to be a very Independent and bravo
race, and they had been accustomed to boiiq absolute masters
wherever they had boon."
(hooting, October 0)
34
The Chronology of Events
June: first part
Bloemfontein conference was held.
Minimum franchise demands of ?411ner:
1* Shall be conferred after five ysars residence,
with retroactive effect;
2, The national oath shall ha modified, to avoid
express renouncement of allegiance to the
Queen;
3* A fall* reproaan tatlon shall be grtwitoci to the
new mining population;
4. Nationality shall Immediately carry with it
full right to vote.
JUly: second part
There was a debate In British Parliament on the crisis.
August: first part
Joint commission of inquiry into new franchise proposals
was suggested by Chamberlain.
August: second port
military preparations were mode on both aIdes,and busi­
ness paralysis In the Transvaal became serious.
September: first part
Kruger replied to Chamberlain with alternative proposals:
1, A five year retrospective franchise;
2, A gold-field representation of IO out of the
36 members of tho Yollcsraad;
3* The new burghers to vote at all elections for
State President and Commandant General;
(Compare with Ililner minimum demands).
There proposals were conditional on three points, con­
sidered necessary t o uarantee t lie Independence of the
Tranavaa).: that Great Britain
1. will not Intervene again*
2 m will give up her claim of suzerainty over the
Transvaal:
3, will accept arbitration on other points.
Upon the British refusal to meet these conditions the new
proposals wore withdrawn, but negotiations continued,
A Cabinet Council was called in Great Britain*
September: seoond part
There was a growth of military preparations on both sides.
October: first part
British reserves were called out, Boer ultimatum——4B
hours, based on the withdrawal of troops and the sub­
mitting of points of dispute to arbitration, was rejec­
ted by Great Britain.
35
rii3Lio':;RAp:'y
■ o o ’tn
Green, «X. :>• !*•
Robson, 0, A,
Jackson, 2<*
London, 1007,
London, 1913.
Hie Diplomacy of Xr.ipor1alIsr=i.
Ylddleton, w. L.
?*oon, P. T.
London, 1956.
The Paycliolo; y of Jingoism.
'Hto Hl;~ktoen Wlnetlos.
Lanyer, w* L.
Staley, 8.
Rhodes Goes north.
The Rape of Africa,
I’or: York, 1936.
Imperialism and world Politics.
Aar and tho Private Investor.
wiili nma, L>.
Coo31 rCooOoa.
ivinf1old-8trat ford,, 8.
Gov? York, 1235.
Kovr York, 1928.
Row York, 1933.
London, 1921.
Tho Victorian Junsot.
Row York, 1932.
Articles
Rusooll, J. T., and Y right,
"Rational Attitude on the Far
Hast Controversy," American Political Science Bovlow.
XXVIII (August, 1933T, Ztr^dTcr,
Wright, 8., and Wolson, C. >J* "American Attitudes Toward Japan
and China. 1937-33." Public Opinion quarterly. H I
(January, 1939), 40-077“”
'
ikmopanera
London ?l:ios. 1099.
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