T 203 2 3 THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO THE ?‘.EASTJREIvTENT OF NATIONAL ATTITUDE DURING A '.VAR CRISIS A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED TO Tim FACULTY OF TITF DIVISION OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCES IN CANDIDACY FOR THE DECKEL OF MASTER OF ARTS INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS BY MARGARET OTIS CHICAGO, ILLINOIS DECEMBER, 1940 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF T A B L E S ............................................ LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS . . . .............................. Chapter I. II. INTRODUCTION ..................... .. M E T H O D ............................................ The Definition of War Crisis The Measurement of National Attitudes Special Aspects of this Study The measurement of attitudes The duration of the Boer War crisis The newspaper vised The selection of attitude statements The Judging of attitude statements III. ATTITUDE CHANGES DURING THE BOER WAR CRISIS . . . Explanation of Attitude and Attention Curves Attitude and Attention Curves Considered In tlielr Relation to Each Other Attitude as a whole In relation to the amount of attention given as a whole The homogeneity of attitude Editorial and non-editor5al attitude in relation to cue another May 1-July 15 July 15—Se p tember 1 September 1—October 11 The sample curve in relation to quantitative curves of attitude as a whole and of editorial attitude Attitude and Attention Curves Considered In Relati n to the Progress of Negotiations be tween the British Government and the Transvaal Republic April 15-July 15 July 15—August 15 August 15-0otober 11 The Comparison of Attitude Curves with Thozje of Other War Crisee Attitudes at the beginnings of the crises Attitudes at the ends of the crises APPENDIX APPENDIX B . BIBLIOGRAPHY • • • • .............................................. LIST OF TABLES Table 1, The Pi s tr lbutIon of Attitude Statements • • • • • • • 27 2, Tho Distribution of Editorial Attitude Statements 20 5* Tho Distribution of *on-Ieditorlal Attitude State ments 20 4* The Distribution of Sample Att1tudo Statements f>» Tho Porcontaoos of Attitude at the Extremes of ........................... the Scale SI The Percentages of Editorial Attitude at the Extreme a of tho Scale • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 51 The Forcen ta^oo of Eon-EGitorlal Attitude at the Extremes of tho Scalo • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • 52 '1110 Ratio of Eon-Edltorlal to Editorial Attitude on tho Basis Editorial Attitude * 1«G0 • • • • • • • 52 G# 7* G. 111 • • • • • SO LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Graph F r ^o 1. The Variation In Amount of Attention Given • 21 2. The Intonsity, Direction, Uono. onolty and Continuity of Attitude . 22 The Variation in Aaount of Editorial and UonIkiltorlal Attention Given, and the Direction and In— tensity of "editorial and fon—Editorial Attitude .• • 23 Tho PSroction and Intensity of Editorial and Non— Editorial Attitude • • .............. . . . . . . . . . 24 0, Am 5. G. The Variation In Amount of Attention Given and tho Ratio of Ron-Editorial to ’ Editorial Attention Clvon The r-lroctior, and Intensity of Attitude ''ensured ^unntltativoly 1'. all Attitude Statement b . In Edi torial Attitude Statements, and In Sample Attitude Statements lv • 25 26 CHAPTER I IHTROCUCTIOH In tills Uioain an attompt Is made to study the charges of attitudo of a atnto chtrlnr a war crisis* The state chosen hero is Great Britain, and th© period of study, the six months preceding the Boor 'War* Curves of difforont aspects of British attitude havo boon drawn according to tho Thurstone method of attitude measurement* Those ore oxanlnod In tlionsolvoo. In th© li&Jit of outsldo ovonts and In their relation to the attitude curves of other states during war crl3oe which have already been drawn, with an attempt to draw oil possible Inforoneos as to th© changes of attitude In a war crisis* 1 CliA, TER II m-Ti’noD Tho Def inition of War Crlala The term war crisis la used to designate a certain time period In the relations between two states, the expiration of which Is only ambiguous In such cases rficro hostilities break out without a declaration of war, but the beginning of which io ambiguously referred to* In this study war crisis is defined aa that period during which tho politically Influential group in one ntato direct a certain minimum degree of attention toward the futuro enemy state and dovolop, with reference to that state, an attitude of steadily Increasing hostility, at the end of which time war actually breaks out* Tho Measurement. of Rational Attitudes The fhuratono method is used here l or measuring tho nttItudo of tho politically Influential group In Great Britain during the 3oer Y*ar crisis, as Illustrated by Mr* Russell and Mr* •■.right,^ with further variations as the particular characteris tics of this crisis have suggested* Tills method is based on the sampling of editorial attitudo statements In reproaontatl vo nov/spapers with reference to soao outside state, and the sorting of those statements Into eleven categories according to intensity of attitudo for or against tho state In question* In choosing ^J* T* Russell and h* Y.rlrht, ”’atlonul Attltudos on the Far Eastern Controversy.” American Political Science Review. XXVII (August, 1933), 555-57S^ “ — -f> 3 tho sarr.pl o statements "an effort was made In the case of a given editorial to take tho attitude statement which epitomised tho general attitude of the editorial*" It la assumed by Mr* Russell and Mr. bright that tho editorials present a fair sample of the politically influential sections of the population which reads tho paper* Special Aspects of this Study Measurement of Attitudo In tbits study attitude lias been measured comparing tho sample method to a quantitative method In order to test tho ac curacy of tho samples as representative of tho newspaper nr. a whole* The quantitative method has also tfiiown variations In tho amount of attention given to tho Transvaal tliroughaut the crisis* Secondly, In view of the use of a quantitative as well as a sampling method of attitude measurement, the numbor of at titude statements has boon considered sufficient for a bl-montkly as well as monthly averaging of attitudes, thus permitting a closer correlation between attitude curves and oxitsidc events* Finally, editorial and non—editorial attitudes havo been measured soparatoly as well as collectively, thus making possible a comparative study of tho two, and separate studios of each with relation to outside events* The Duration of tho Boer War Crisis The crisis chosen for this study Is consldorod as begin ning in May, 1G99 when th© amount of attention directed toward the Transvaal (fifty-one attitude statements during the course of tho month an compared ruary, March, and April) Is first above the mlnl.mun hero XIbld* with twenty-seven during January, Feb considered necessary to constitute a war crisis* It ends on October 11, 1399, when the Boer ultimatum to Great Britain ex pired* Tho Newspaper Used The newspaper chosen for the measurement of attitude Is tho London Times as best representing the politically influential sector of the British population* The Selection of Attitude Statements Attitude statements are chosen from editorials, letters, speeches, poems, book reviews, and special articles— that Is, all attitude statements are Included vrlth the exception of those ap pearing In straight news wrlte-rips, where they are quite infre quent, end those found in quotations from foreign newr.papers, which are not necessarily similar to simultaneous British atti tudes* Statements considered as referring to the Transvaal nro those which refer to the state, tho government, acts of govern ment, government instit\itlons, high government officials, and the people of the state* The term attitude statement, as defined by Mr* Wright and Mr* liaison, "implies the use of 'emotional' words and of state ments or 'rationalisations' which are not In accordance with or which go beyond facts*"^ It was found necessary. In order, somehow, to limit the number of statements included, to consider here as attitude state ments only those in which the attitude was explicit* Thus, while "the extravagant pretensions of the Boors" (September 14) is considered an attitude statement, Paul Kruger's Idea was really Q,* Wright and C* Nelson, "American Attitudes toward Japan and China, 1937-53," Public Opinion Quarterly. Ill (January, 1939), 46-62* to have an independent Republic extending from ZanbOBl to Capo— totm1’ (September 2G) is not* Tho Judging or Attitudo Statements In sorting theeo statements, a division was first made between those favorable and those unfavorable* These were sub divided Into five groups according to intensity of attitudes* A final croup contains, in the studios of I-’r* bright, statements which are Judged to be neutral* In this study it actually con tains either statements vory faintly tinged with attitude pro or con the Transvaal, or unclosalflablo statemonts from which either a favorable or unfavorable attitude may bo Inferred* CHAPTER III ATTITUDE CHANGES DURING 1WE BOER WAR CRISIS Explanation of A ttitude and Attention (Amount of ~ Attitude Statements) dirrvoa Attitude and attention are studied here In the following ways : Appendix Graph 1 oho»3 the variation In amount of atten tion piven, as measured through the number of attitude statements, and the direction and Intensity of attitude; Graph 2, the Inten sity, direction, homogeneity and continuity of attitude* Graph 3, the variation In amount of editorial and non—editorial atten tion given, and the direction and Intensity of editorial and nonedltorlal attitude; Graph 4, the direction and Intensity of edlv torlal and non—editorial attitude; Graph 5, the variation In amount of attention given and tho ratio of non-editorial to edi torial attention given; Graph 6, tho direction and Intensity of attitude measured quantitatively in all attitude statements. In editorial attitude stataments, and in sample attitude statements* In choosing sample statements I selected from each editorial two attitude statements which I judged representative of the attitude of the editorial as a whole* Attitude and Attention Curves Considered In Their Relation to f.acK 6€Ker It is of some interest to observe the particular charac teristics of these curves and the relation of one to another, before considering them In the light of outside events* 1* To consider first, in Graph 1, attitude as a whole In 6 7 relation to amount of attention given as a whole, within the range of a certain minimum degree of attention, which range ex* eludes May end June— and making an exception of tho second part of September, the two curves move In the same direction* The greater the attention given, the more favorable the attitude* Oraph 4 ehowr. that non-editorial attitude la on the whole more friendly to the Transvaal than editorial attitude; and Graph 5, that there la a covariation of the amount of attention given as a whole and the amount of non—editorial, as compared to editorial attention given* However, not only does the proportion of non- editorial attitude Increase as the amount of attention given In creases , btxt, as may be seen In Graph 3, from the first half of July on, except for the second half of August and that of Septem ber, editorial attitude and attention curves move In the same direction; the greater the amount of editorial attention given the more favorable editorial attitude* Thus the fact that favorabillty of attitude as a whole increases as attention given as a whole increases has two reasons: (1) comparatively friendly non-editorial attitude Increases in amount as attention as a whole increases; (2) non-odltorial atti tude becomes more friendly as it Increases In amount* Thor© oro two possi ble explanations of this second obser vation* Non—editorial writing represents groups both friendly and hostile t o t h e Transvaal* Thus there is a possibility that th© increased friendliness of non—editorial attitude is due: (1) to the greater amount of attention g ivon by friendly groups as compared with hostile groups; (2) to tho increased friendliness of the editorial attitude as a whole* Obviously these possibilities are not mutually exclusive; however, one may have greater weight than the other* To 8 aaoertaln their relative Importance It would be necessary to di vide non—editorial attitude statements according to the known political affiliation of the writer (for or against tho govern ment policy) and thon observe whether there is: (1) a covariation of the curve of attention given by writers against the government policy and the curve of non-editorial attitude; and/or (2) a co variation of ti e attitude curves of writers for the government policy and non—editorial attitude. If both covariations wore ob served it would be necessary to comi»ute statistically the rela tive Impact of each in the curve of non-editorial attitude. 2. How, after considering the relation of attitudo and a tention distribution, the homogeneity of attitude will be dis cussed. In Graph 2 if polarization of attitude is considered to exist where group 1 contains over 2 per cent of the total atti tude statesnts for two weeks; group 2, ovor 10 por cent; group 10, over 1 per cent and group 11, over 1 per cent,^ tliero Is a polarisation of attitude only in t he s econd part of September and in October, the period immediately preceding the outbreak of war* It may be seen in the Appendix Tables 7 and 8, that the passage of attitude from friendly to more friendly la almost entirely due to changes in non-editorial attitude, whereas that from un friendly to more unfriendly la due mainly to changes In editorial attitude. However, while In editorials hostile attitude becomes increasingly Intense as war approaches, in non-editorial writing hostile attitude la more intense In the second part of September than In October. In order to validate the general proposition that as one approaches tho outbreak of war there la a further likelihood of ^Theae percentages wore arbitrarily chosen as best showing; the greater Intensities of attitude during the final weeks of the crisis as corapured with earlier weeks. polarisation of attitude similar attitude studies of other crises would have to be made.1, 3* Having considered attitude as a whole, editorial and non-editorial attitude will now be studied as separate entities in their relation to one another. Graph 7 shows that editorial and non-editorial attitude stand in three different relations to one another. May 1-July 1 5 .— The curves move in the same direction but move in opposite directions if allowance is made for a regular two-weeks time lag in either editorial or non-editcrial attitude. Insofar as the two curves move in the same direction but with a time lag there are the two possibilities that non-editorial In fluences editorial attitude or vice versa. is most unlikely The first possibility because o f the extremely low degree of non-edi- torlal attention given dnring those months— it bo ing much more Ilk ly that editorial attitudo was formed by cablegrams sent dally from South Africa and the deliberate policy of the editors of the paper, which, as is well known, was sympathetic to Rhodes and Chamberlain There Is a second possibility, that the non-editorial writers are being Influenced by editorial attitude in two ways: by facts read in editorials and by editorial attitude itself. This seems more likely, as it is probable that at the beginning of the crisis readers of the paper had no source of information other than the London Times. It also seems likely that there ^It would be interesting, for instance, to make a study of American attitudes during 1940 with reference to Rngland (choos ing here the potential ally rather than the potential enemy as this would show a wider variation of attitude). 2 "Rhodes had won over Moberly Bell, the powerful manager of the London Times, to his South African projects." Eugene Staley. War and fcho Private Investor (Hew York, 1935), p. 207. 10 should be a certain time lag between tie reading of the editorials, the formation of an attitude, both from facta read in the edi torials and the attitude in the editorials themselves, and the reformulation of such attitude in speeches, articles and letters to the Times, There is again a third possibility that there Is no sub stantial interaction between the two attitudes. they In this case would be reacting oppositely to the a are outside events. The fact that v e r y few Important outside events took place during this time would perhaps diminish the likelihood. To Investigate these possibilities it would be necessary to compare the contents of editorials and non-edltorlals as distinguished from attltldes to compute statistically the proportion of non-edltorlal writing In the Tines In which the chief points of emphasis were made in pre vious editorials} the proportion quoting editorials as source or obviously deriving tholr information from editorials. This would show whether the attitude of non-editorial writers was Influenced by information derived from earlier editorials. There is also tho possibility th at non—edit orial writers are influenced by the attitude of earlier editorials. 1 Investigate. This would be difficult to July 15-3 aptember 1 .— The two curves move in toe same direction, the non-editorla 1 curve being always the more extreme. Kxperimenta, however, could be devised to test the like lihood of such a hypothes 1st the attitudes of t wo groups of people with reference to a subject could be studied. 'Hie first of these groups would have been exposed, two weeks before to some litera ture expressing a definite attitude towards that subject. If the attitude of members of the first group should correspond more closely to the attitude expressed In the literature than that of members of the second group, the hypothesis wo. Id be borne out to a certain extent. It would be necessary before studying the at titudes of the two groups to equate their previous attitudes and also to make sis*e by means of tests that the members of tho first group do not clearly remember the facts In the piece of litera ture to w h ’ch they wore exposed. 11 Th* point at which non-aditorlal attitude first moves In the same direction with editorial attitude Is the time when a parliamentary debate was held for the first time on the subject of the Transvaal and when for the first time, non-editorial attention became large, as may be seen In Qraph 3* This leads to a presumption that dur ing this period non-edltarial attitude is less dependent on edi torial attitude* To give proof to such a proposition It wrould be necessary to use the same methods as those mentioned above, but In the opposite ways compute the proportion of non-editorial writers quoting sources and obtaining information other than that In editorials* September 1-October 1 1 *— The curves again move in opposite directions, and In the same direction if allowance 3s made for a two week time lag in non-edltorlal attitude* However, there Is somewftiat less of a preaxunptlon In this case that, as In the first ease, non-edltorlal attitude is Influenced by facts and attitudes of earlier editorials* First, as may be seen in Qraph 3, non— editorial attention is greater during this last phase than at any other time* This might suggest that that where such high interest was shown, non-editorial wrrlters would perhaps attempt to find sources of information other than the editorials. Secondly, it is certain that in this last period there were Important outside events (the final exchanges of notes between Kruger and Chamberlain) which were discussed simultaneously In both editorials and non-editorlals; and that these two sources of attitude were in conscioiis disagreement* A reading of the Loadon Times gives an im pression that this is not true in the first period (May 1-July 15). However, a statistical compu tat ion should be made in both periods of the number of hostile statements appearing in editorials with reference to non-editorial writers opposing the editorial policy 12 (Korley, Cambell-Bannerman, etc*) cmd vice versa* Statistical computations should also be made showing the proportion of nonedltorlal writing deriving Information from sources other than tho editorial columns, and those dealing with the same outside events simultaneously with editorials* If ouch proportions were much greator In the last than In the first period, validity would bo given to the proposition that during this last period as opposed to the first poriod, editorial and non-edltorlal attitudes are being formed simultaneously by outside events* It may also be seen, In comparing the relation of tho two curves in tho first poriod to that in the last period, that whereas In th* first although moving In opposite directions they remain fairly close together and intersect at throe points, in this last poriod there is a wide divergence of the two* This would give Increased support to the two propositions alroady given regarding tho first and third periods* It would seem likely that where non-edltorlal attitude was positively Influence by editorial attitudo it would remain within the same general range of atti tude, while where editorial and non-edltorlal attitude are inde pendent, they might move in different ranges of attitude* A reading of tho London Times during tills period gives the impression that whereas at tho beginning of tho crisis nonedit or lal attitude Is equally distributed between all political parties, at the end of tho crisis it Increasingly represents the Opposition In parliament* Some support would bo glvon to this If the propositions suggested regarding the relation of editorial and non-odltorial attitudes In tho first and last periods wore established* As tho editorial policy supported the government, non-edltorlal attitude moving exactly opposltoly to editorial tltudo might seem to represent tho Opposition* To give such a •opositlon any validity it would be necessary to commit-** 13 end or the crisis the proportion of letters, articles, and speeches signed by avowed members of the Opposition as compared with that proportion at the beginning of the crisis* To consider each curve as a whole, both change direction every two weeks, thus oscillating In a regular two-weeks rhythm* Mr* Russell and Mr* Wright, observing such oscillations In their studies, assert that this Is a universal pattern of attitude* It may be noted here that the editorial attitude curve is on the iftiole smoother than that of non-edltorlal attitude, and that the oscillations are smaller and much more regular. This may be at tributed to the higher feeling of responsibility on the part of the editorialists* , the 4. To finally consider, in Oraph 6 sample curve of attitude In it3 relation to the quontitatlve curves of attitude, the divergence between editorial attitude and attitude as a whole precludes any possibility of similarity between the sample curve and the curve of attitude as a whole. There is only a alight difference between the sample curve and the curve of editorial attitude* Attitude and Attention Curves Considered In Relation to the Progress of negotiations between tfis British Government and the Transvaal Republic It Is Impossible to determine in this study which events were most Important as causes for changes of attitude In the London Times* Obviously there were many factors apart from the actual negotiations between the two governments which were no doubt of Importance; however, it is probable that tho progress of the negotiations Influenced attitude enough to make profitable a study of attitude and attention In relation to the progress of negotiations• It Is convenient to study the Boer War crisis In terms of 14 three distinct periods• April 15-July 15 During this period the question of the grievances of the Nltlanders emerged; as may be seen in the increasing amount of attention given* and the increasing hostility of attitude. Milner expressed the issue* in the unsuccessful Bloemfontein conference* in terms of demands for franchise reforms within the Transvaal. July 15-August 15 Fruitless negotiations were held between the British and TTansvaal governments. The relative inactivity* during this period* is reflected in the static character of the attention curve* except for the sudden upward spurt in the latter part of July which may be attributed to the parlianentary debate held on the subject of the Transvaal at that time. The attitude curve is also relatively static except for an upward spurt in the second part of July which may be attributed to the fact that during ,the parliamentary debate the attitude of political lea era more favor able to the TTansvaal than those responsible fcx* the editorial policy of the London Times is recorded. August 15-0ctober 11 The issue shifted from a demand for franchise reforms, which were substantially conceded* to the status of the TTansvaal. The Transvaal*s claim of sovereignty was denied by Great Britain* which insisted on its own suzerainty over the Transvaal* and re garded the Transvaal claim as in the nature of a defiance. Whereas the franchise question seemed susceptible of peaceful solution* the question of the status of the TTansvaal was one which neither government was willing to concede. Thus the atten tion curve rises steadily as the possibility of a compromise 15 beearae Increasingly re otfl, mill tary proparat Iona wore rushed on both aldai, and war In the near future changed from a possibility to a probability. It la Interesting to note that during tho poriod directl?/ preceding the outbreak of war there waa a lessen ing of attention. This suggests that as ear was already accepted as Inevitable the gradual drifting Into war waa of leas nows value than would have been efforts to avert war. A proposition might bo advanced that there 3s an optimum degree of probability of an event for tlieamount of attention given to that event. Such a proposition would have to be borne out through similar studies of attitudo with re f o r m cfl to specific l3suee. A study of the curve of all attitude statements In relation to outside events is not useful durin, crisis. tS'is lost period of the As waa seen in the analysis of Qraph 4, editorial and non-editorial attitudes reacted to events in exactly opposite ways. The apparently paradoxical fact of a national attitude In Great Britain which at tho moment of declaration of war is fHvornble as compared with the national attitude during the first parts of July and August, Is capable of explanation when editorial and nonedltorlal attitudes oro separately examined. The paradox la due to the mutually neutralising effects of opposite and extreme at titudes when these are counted In the same curve. Although Hi ere wa3 an important c h K v e of attention during the second half of August, there Is no change in editorial and non-edltorlal curves tint 11 the first half of September. The second half of August was a period of Increasing military preparations In both Great iri tain and the Transvaal, and a growing sense of the failure of negotiations. It was not, however, until early in September, that Kruger sent a dispatch to the British Government, practical I, conceding all franchise refarai3 demanded by Milner at 1G the Bloemfontein conference, but at the same time he raised the question of tho status of tho Transvaal. Little Englanders and Liberals v;olcomod tho new Kruger proposals as loading to a peace ful solution of tho dispute, whereas Chamberlain and tho govern ment party rightly or wrongly Interpreted tho Transvaal claim to complete Independence as an Insolent doflnace of tho British posi tion In South Africa which, in tho interest of British prestige, should not bo tolerated# It is known as a fact that tho editors of the Times conslstenly supported Chamberlain and Rhodes. The proposition that towards tho end of the crisis non-editorials In creasingly represented the Opposition, although not given conclu sive proof, has sec-med likely# If this proposition is true it would seem that non-editorial attitude welcome the Kruger propo sals whereas editorial attitude, following the Chamberlain lead and perhaps fearing that a peaceful solution was not possible without menacing British Interests in South Africa, shifted its ground and picked on the Issue of the Transvaal’s claim to inde pendence as a challenge to the British empire. After a relaxation of tho intensity of each attitude d u r ing the second part of September, diiring October, just before the outbreak of vmr, non-editorial attitude moves upward again, and editorial attitude, downward# If tho supposition earlier made that ns one approaches the outbreak of war non-editorial writers increasingly represent the Opposition party is true, this final 'upward swing, of non-edltorlal attitude would seoiu due to a last minute effort on the part of cortnin members of the Opposition to avert war# In reading of the London Times of October, l'-0 , the many letters and speeches of such men ns i'orlcy nnf C atipbell-^annerman give this impression. It is natural that editorial attitude, since trie editorial policy of tho London Times supported the 17 government, should reach its lowest point with the declaration of war. If It could be definitely established that the Opposition is represented to a greater degree at the end of the crisis than at the beginning, It would be Interesting to make similar studies of other war crises In countries where opinion is divided. It would first be seen, as has been already said, whether there is a polarisation of attitude at the end of the crisis j and second, whether favorable and unfavorable attitudes are then evenly dis tributed, or whether they represent to a greater extent then at other times during the crisis opposing political parties. If such were true it could be assumed that polarization of attitude at the end of a crisis was due to a more definite cleavage of policy between the two political parties at tho end of the crisis than at the beginning. The Comparison of Attitude Curves with Thoa* of Other Waif* Arises Having considered attitude and attention In relation to the progress of negotiations, it was considered of possible In terest to compare the attitude curve in Graph 2 to those already drawn of states during other war crises. In their article on the attitude of states, Mr. Russell and Mr. Wright made a study of American attitude wl th reference to Germany during a period in cluding the World War crisis. These curves were drawn from sample statements selected from editorials of representative newspapers and are assumed by Mr. Russell and Mr. Wrif£it to represent the attitude of the public reading the paper. The curve of attitude as a whole in the London Times w ill be compared to these curves, and not the sample curve, as this does not In t he least represent the attitude of the public reading the paper. These curves of 13 American attitude differ strikingly from the curves of British attitude during the Boer War crisis* 1* The average attitude of the United States towards Germany falls during the war crisis, from a relatively high pointy An Important state, such as Germany, was of news value In a foreign state whether the attitude Of that state happened to he hostile to it or not, whereas the ITanavanl, a relatively unim portant state, had little or no news value except insofar as it aroused British Indignation* 2. American attitudes toward Germany reached a lower level than did British attitude toward the Transvaal* When war was declared in 1917 the average waa 2.5 as compared with 4*29 in 1099, and this waa lower than at any other point during the crisis* This observation is equally true of the curvo of attitude of Japan with reference to Chino also drawn by hr. Russell and Mr. Wright from 1930-).932, which, reached its lowest point, 2.75, dur ing the month of the Mukden Incident* ^ It has already been observed that, in this study, the at titude curve in Graph 2 is relatively high dbrJ.ng tho month when war broke out, although the curve of editorial attitude tlien readies Its lowest point, 3.22. Graph 3 Shows that the degree of attention given in non-editorials la much greater than that given in editorials towards the end of the crisis, and that the attitude shown la opposite to that of the editorials. Thus tho London Times does not show to any considerable extent the attitude of that sector of the British public which supported the government policy, although the editorialists supported that policy. There *The attitude statements shown In Appendix B of this paper, p. 34, and in that of "Attitudes on the Far Eastern Con trove' _,yH may be referred to, to see how far such on absolute comparison of attitude In both, studies is justifiable* 19 are two possible explanations * (1) Readers of the London Tinea agreeing with its editorial policy and with the government wrote fewer letters and raade fewer speoehes than did members of the Opposition* There is no way of proving tnlat although there is a common sense presumption to the effect* (2) ChamberIain's chief adherents were not the readers of the London Times but readers of popular newspapers such as the Ltd ly hews* In order to find out if this were true it would bo necessary to make similar atti tudo curves of non-edltorlal attitude in tho bally News and see how far tills corroaponds to edit or ltvl attitude in tho London Times* APPENDIX A 21 271 rlen&l; 520 310 210. 20CC lO 19(l IOC l 17C 1G1 X 14C: Ui 13C 120 :outx*al G Ho IOC ocE 7C SO 4C 20 Ioatllo Attitude At ton* tion '■ay June J Oct Graph I,— The variation in amount of attention given Dissertation Graph Paper for Sale by the University of Chicago BookMore—5802 Ellis Avenoe, Chicago* Illin o is 22 11 lO Neutral Hostile Attitude Atg g tlon ay June July Oct Oraph 2.— The intensity, dlroctlon, homogeneity and contlmilty of attitude. 23 289 241 Friendly 11 210 200 10 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 6 110 lOO 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Hostile 10 ttitude Atten tlon Hay June July Aug Sept Oct Graph 3 .--The variation In acioxmt of editorial and nonoditorlal attention given, and the direction and intern ity of* editorial and non-edltorlal attitude# 24 Friendly 11 Lt£ 10 Dissertation Graph Paper for Sale by the University of Chicago Bookstore—5802 Ellis Avenue* Chicago* Illin o is 9 8 7 Neutral 6 5 4 3 2 Hostile 1 Attitude At ten' tion June July Au g . Sept. Oct. Graph 4• — 'i'iie direction and Intonsit;,- of editorial and non-editorial attitude. 25 S.5 350 340 330 320 310 300 290 230 270 2G0 250 240 230 220 210 200 1.0 190 100 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 GO 40 30 pn Ratio of Attitude 10 0 Atten- 1 tlon May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Graph 5 .--The variation In amount of attention given and the ratio of non-editorial to editorial attention given. 26 Friendl a ui 10 9 0 7 |Neutral § 6 5 4 3 2 Hoatllj ay Juno July Aug Sept Oct Graph 6*--The direction and intensity of attitude measured quantitatively in all attitude statements, in editorial attitude statements, and in sample attitude statements* 27 • • *» '0 tS a u m u ® 05 05 • r-i to to a» cy rH CO • • ■>» ^ to 05 r-i t> • • H* W CD O >«r to • • to ^ lO CO CO 06 • • IO to (O €0 CO IO OJ CM CM CU> C- Ol r-t CO ECM t> 05 m to r-i G» CO O to CM tO iH IO r-i • • • r-i • • • • CM CO ■M* O • CM r-i • • to • ■ £> %»' M5 > a 4.35 CO 0» • SO to • IO o» • Average per 2 wka, i *< • •m J 5-*£P •* CM 3 46 *« o » E-* a 52! t ;; r^— W e* E C-O< r-l pH <=s 06 CM • O rl H H H r-i -M1 • r-l © 'o r-i CO co r-tr-i to • • I> • CM "M* r-l CM O <H t- • CM to to • CO r-lCM O 06 CM g CO ft CM CM CM in *8 to to r-l to to CO tO CM C~ CO o o r-l -M* a s m to ■M* -M* 05 «# O to CO CM CM S 8 CO CO CM tO to in r- IO r-i CO o «o r-i CM 10 r-l 8 3 8 S in CO r-t o C£> in r-i • • "M* -r » fH <c F-t ’•'.> 05 CM • H1 a IO H cm in r-i r-i r-l CM o r-l •£> OJ •-* e- ■** rV-lC~ r-l rH O H* r-l CM IO r-l 3 H • • r-i • •to r-l-M- r-l 05 CM •8 r-i CM r-l CM r-lCM r-l CM r-l CM r-l *» 4> ft O 4> O $4 U C 4» n H 3 C/5 • s l 1 t>» H Z a • 4* O. ® o < 28 u 9 a 3 .7 2 £ > *3 3 .7 9 • * to -* j «e 4 .4 7 K CM c- a t • to • CO CM CM • to • ** P • O m O rH r f tO CM Q 4 .0 0 to o l O Oi • • to to 3 .5 9 I 3 .9 5 • & *_•:> * as Pi O l 5 .0 0 a © to CO o • • to H 1 O O H* CO • • to to CM CM H< r t o rH rH rH CM rH Oi • to .H C H CM © CM rH • CM tO 5 5 o fe © © CO rH pH i i O rH 05 iH rH DO Group THE DISTRIBUTION OF EDITORIAL ATTITUDE STATEMENTS • • • . ■ rH rH • • • . •CM •rH • • • • • • • • CM iH rH • * • • • rH t> CM H* rH H* to rH CM t> M* O SO O rH rH t - CM • «H rH «£> SO 1 • tD •rH CM O rH P- CM rH o to rH CM rH tO IO CO t - rH IO CM rH o a> rH CM C~ tO CM rH rH rH rH rH rH 10 O CM id tr (D H * to to t> © t> O O to tO O H* CM rH rH rH o CM c- tH to 05 to • rH • rH • • rH rH rH rH rH •I* xs •H CM rH CM rH CM rH CM rH CM rH fc « • 45 45 a © 5* f«H »r •-3 rH •? §> < •g U © B © o 45 © o 45 P to 45 45 (0 ce u O IQ io o S • • to 9 m 9 to *© • • to 'M* tO Q o 95 • • H tO CO 03 cn to CM to to 4,43 Ol 5.63 « • ta « 8 t* 5,70 3,72 29 9 e* • 9 P. • J§ o • S5 ! w H ■ cm «<*•co 43 tO to r-l ^ tO H •H • t> H CM o Ol E- *4 E-t • H CM • • O • • 03 ■ • r-l * • * H • to r-lH t> tr •H 03 tO CO • to •H 9H o H •H o o> H H CM CM CO to m H CM rl O* 9 H CM in O H H CM H (X) m H M H H •CM to to • tX> 6 CD *• tft • • • 00 • • IO CM • 9 r-l • t> CMC* • • •to H I CM •9 tO to HOI H t» H to H 10 •CM 03 lO H H tO Ol • to H O H 03 'O H r-l • H • • tO "M1 • ^ CM 14 30 D. I THE DISTRIBUTION OP NON-EDITORIAL ATTITUDE STATEMENTS a 5S m O CM 03 tO *M* 0 - to to • to • CO to H CO to • H CM HO* H CM H CM H CM H 43 U B B h P< 43 43 E* CB H i • Q ►a ■ H P ►9 E) <s n 9 4> 9 05 o o © 3 *» 43 43 m fti •< SO * o» (O • •O •o o • x* TO TO • IO o »£> CM 8 CM IO CM H* CD rH • CM a Total No* oar month «< ** S 02 m o U II 3,70 r+ • *3 fS C to TITE DISTRIBUTION 0? SAULE ATTITUDE STATEMENTS rH rH o rH a» H • • • • • CO rH • • rH • • • rH • • • tA B to A f-H rH • • rH rH IO • IO TO CO rH rH tO C- t* X* O rH x# rH t* rH rH rH rH H> x® rH N H CM CM x® lO C~ • rH rH rH CM 1 * rH • lO x® • fe 5* w ►a July g 43 orr a 4 ■i • •P Pr • W October ■Q 31 TABLE 5 THE PERCENTAGES OP ATTITUDE AT TFTE EXTREMES OP TITH SCALE IT July 1.32 August 5.74 12.72 •48 2 ,6 6 .95 2.37 10.93 October 1.29 TABLE 6 TITE PERCENTAGES OF EDITORIAL ATTITUDE AT TIT EXTREMES OP TJTE SCALE Group Date ... r ---••••• .. "TT 1.66 15.63 5.00 1 2 1.85 .85 5.55 5.90 September 1 2 .82 1.01 7.44 7.07 October 4.50 19.10 July August 1 2 1 --- m • •••# II • • ••• • •••• 1.01 32 TABLE 7 TITE PERCENTAGES OF RON-EDITORIAL ATTITUDE AT THE EXTREMES OF THE SCALE Group Date 1 2 10 11 July 1 2 • •# • 1.00 24.32 6.63 • • •• 1.42 •••• ••• • August 1 2 • •• • 3.04 10.05 9.21 • •• • •••• •• • • •• • • September 1 2 • ••• 3.35 3.40 15.45 7.95 2.09 2.27 1.G7 October 3.32 1 1.66 TABLE 8 THE RATIO OF NON-EDITORIAL TO EDITORIAL ATTITUDE OH THE BASIS EDITORIAL ATTITUDE * 1.00 Dmto Ratio Fay 1 ...........10 2 .......... 42 Ju t m 1 . . •. *32 2 . . . . 1.50 July 1 • • • • 1.16 2 • • . . 3.47 Au^us t 1 . . «. *20 2 .......... 65 September 1 • • •• .73 2 . . . • 2.40 Ootober 1• • • • 2.74 APPENDIX B Sample Attitude Statomonto 1* "• . • who ^JrlticH subjects/^ w®**e tyrannized over and appro g nod by the moot wlcirod Oovernnont tl;nt UacI over oxlstod under the nun*" (Teetlny, foptombor 21) 2* ", « . that supremacy ^Tr.ltlah|7 • • • Is seriously and insolently cimlleny.od,* (Letter, Octobor 3) Z * "* * * a contlnuanc of misrule and Incompetence In the Government of a small state In which we have larc© Interests*" (Letter, ’*ay 2 3 ) 4* "• • * that tills prohibition • • • Is in conflict with tho spirit, If not tbo letter, of the Convention is hardly to be contested*" (IC<orlal, August 24) 5* "* * * such bolnu tho otubbornoso of the Boors." (House of Commons, July 29) 6* "• * * whatever tho disapproval of much that has boon ono by the Transvaal Government, it Is felt there is nothlny in the existing circumstances to Justify a resort to arms*’1 ~ (Letter, August 25) 7* "They have yon©, if not quite the whole, almost tho whole of tho way towards a provision for tho rodroos of grievan ces which tho British Government Imvu demanded*” (Letter, Octo ber 4) D. "Thoy had manhood suffrage In the South African Kopublic, nru' the only way In which they could extend It wan to grant womanhood suffrage*" (Mooting, October C) 9* "Although many gibes and sneers had boon thrown at tho President of tho -Republic, * * * at least he would daro to say t is for him— that he was about tho only man who scorned to have the foe ling or consciousness that God had anything todo with it all*" T 'eetlr.y, October 4) 10* "Tho naturalization law would thus bo far more eneroup t' an tho laws prevailing in 1'uropo or In our own colufii.es**1 (heo tin _, be tobor 6) 11* "he ’m e w thorn to be a very Independent and bravo race, and they had been accustomed to boiiq absolute masters wherever they had boon." (hooting, October 0) 34 The Chronology of Events June: first part Bloemfontein conference was held. Minimum franchise demands of ?411ner: 1* Shall be conferred after five ysars residence, with retroactive effect; 2, The national oath shall ha modified, to avoid express renouncement of allegiance to the Queen; 3* A fall* reproaan tatlon shall be grtwitoci to the new mining population; 4. Nationality shall Immediately carry with it full right to vote. JUly: second part There was a debate In British Parliament on the crisis. August: first part Joint commission of inquiry into new franchise proposals was suggested by Chamberlain. August: second port military preparations were mode on both aIdes,and busi ness paralysis In the Transvaal became serious. September: first part Kruger replied to Chamberlain with alternative proposals: 1, A five year retrospective franchise; 2, A gold-field representation of IO out of the 36 members of tho Yollcsraad; 3* The new burghers to vote at all elections for State President and Commandant General; (Compare with Ililner minimum demands). There proposals were conditional on three points, con sidered necessary t o uarantee t lie Independence of the Tranavaa).: that Great Britain 1. will not Intervene again* 2 m will give up her claim of suzerainty over the Transvaal: 3, will accept arbitration on other points. Upon the British refusal to meet these conditions the new proposals wore withdrawn, but negotiations continued, A Cabinet Council was called in Great Britain* September: seoond part There was a growth of military preparations on both sides. October: first part British reserves were called out, Boer ultimatum——4B hours, based on the withdrawal of troops and the sub mitting of points of dispute to arbitration, was rejec ted by Great Britain. 35 rii3Lio':;RAp:'y ■ o o ’tn Green, «X. :>• !*• Robson, 0, A, Jackson, 2<* London, 1007, London, 1913. Hie Diplomacy of Xr.ipor1alIsr=i. Ylddleton, w. L. ?*oon, P. T. London, 1956. The Paycliolo; y of Jingoism. 'Hto Hl;~ktoen Wlnetlos. Lanyer, w* L. Staley, 8. Rhodes Goes north. The Rape of Africa, I’or: York, 1936. Imperialism and world Politics. Aar and tho Private Investor. wiili nma, L>. Coo31 rCooOoa. ivinf1old-8trat ford,, 8. Gov? York, 1235. Kovr York, 1928. Row York, 1933. London, 1921. Tho Victorian Junsot. Row York, 1932. Articles Rusooll, J. T., and Y right, "Rational Attitude on the Far Hast Controversy," American Political Science Bovlow. XXVIII (August, 1933T, Ztr^dTcr, Wright, 8., and Wolson, C. >J* "American Attitudes Toward Japan and China. 1937-33." Public Opinion quarterly. H I (January, 1939), 40-077“” ' ikmopanera London ?l:ios. 1099.