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The Russian Economy: Situation and Outlook

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The Russian Economy:
Situation and Outlook
Sergey Afontsev
Institute for World Economy and
International Relations, Moscow, Russia
EU-Russia Industrialists Roundtable
ICEUR Business Seminar
The Russian Economy After Sochi
Vienna, March 03, 2014
Economic Dynamics in 2013 (per cent)
Mixed Performance in January 2014
Growth Rates: Russia vs. World Economy
GDP Dynamics:
Comparative Perspective
Consumer Prices
(percentage change)
Unemployment (per cent)
IMEMO Growth Forecast
GDP, 2009 current US$ (bn)
GDP, 2009 PPP, US$ (bn)
50000
30000
45000
25000
40000
35000
20000
30000
25000
15000
20000
10000
15000
10000
5000
5000
0
0
2000
2010
USA
2020
2030
EU
2000
China
Russia
2010
2020
2030
Fuels and Energy Still Fuel Growth
GDP Growth vs. Investment Growth
Does Russia Invest Too Little?
Investment Shares in GDP
World…………………..
Developed Countries….
G7…………………….
US…………………
UK………………..
Japan……………..
EU……………………
Eurozone…………….
Germany………..
The Netherlands.
France………….
Spain……………
Greece…………
Ireland………...
Developing Markets…..
Asia…………………...
China…………….
India……………...
Latin America………….
Brazil…………….
Mexico………….
CIS……………………..
Russia……………
FDI Flows
Foreign Assets of Top 20 Russian MNEs
(US$ bn, end of 2011)
Russian Federation
� EU – 39 per cent
� CIS – 28 per cent (incl. Ukraine – some 9 per cent )
Foreign Investment to Russia:
Country Structure
Total FI stock in Russia equals $381.1 (end of December,
2013), incl. FDI $126.1 (32.8 per cent of the total).
End of December, 2013
Other
16%
Japan
US 3%
Cyprus
18%
3%
France
3%
The Netherlands
18%
Ireland
5%
Germany
6%
UK
7%
China
8%
Luxemburg
13%
Can Megaprojects Help?
Resources are still available…
…as well as international reserves
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