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The Gaidar Readings: Political Demography and Social Macro-Dynamics
Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
(RANEPA)
Political Demography of
Russian Elections
Sergey Shulgin, RANEPA
Electoral support in Presidential
Election 2012 as a function of age
Zhirinovsky
Zuganov
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
20
15
10
5
0
18-24
25-39
40-54
55+
18-24
Mironov
25-39
40-54
55+
40-54
55+
Prohorov
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
15
10
5
0
18-24
25-39
40-54
55+
18-24
DATA: Levada Center
1633 people aged 18 years and over 130 settlements of 45 regions of the country
25-39
Electoral support
as a function of age (Putin)
Zhirinovsky
Zuganov
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
20
15
10
5
0
18-24
25-39
40-54
55+
18-24
Mironov
25-39
40-54
55+
40-54
55+
Prohorov
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
18-24
25-39
40-54
18-24
55+
25-39
Putin
60
55
50
45
40
18-24
25-39
40-54
55+
Demographic tendencies in Russia
50000000
45000000
40000000
35000000
30000000
18-24
25-39
25000000
40-54
55+
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
Rosstat: middle scenario
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
0
Demography Maters for Elections
=
• Demographic impact on voting behavior
+
• Shifts in demographic structures
Open Research Questions
• age OR generations?
• demographic models for electoral statistics
– Regions (83)
– Territorial Election Districts (225)
– Precinct Election Districts (~100 000)
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